COVID-19大流行对南部非洲的影响covid-19_-_southern_africa-最新报告-研究院-中非桥跨境贸易服务平台

COVID-19大流行对南部非洲的影响covid-19_-_southern_africa

2020-04-20

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COVID-19 pandemic impact on Southern Africa

COVID-19 pandemic impact on Southern Africa -Main channels
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Souther AfricahasadiversesetoftradingpartnersinwhichtheEUandChinaarethemaintradingpartners:SlowergrowthintheseregionscouldreducedemandformanySouthernAfrica'sexportandimportproducts(especially,intermediate).AsthemostindustrializedAfricanregion,SouthernAfricawillbeadverselyimpactedasfactoriesareclosingthroughouttheworldandmanufacturing(e.g.autosector),miningandothercommoditysupplychainsarebeingdisrupted.Businessesinindustriesmostat-riskcouldclosetomitigateinfectionriskforemployeesandcustomersalike.Tourism,transportation,retailandrestaurantsarepossibleexamples.
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As anexporterofdiversecommodityproducts(e.g.ironore,aluminum,chrome,manganese,copper,gold,diamond,palladium,platinum,coalandoil)countrieswillbeimpacteddifferently.Forinstance,arunforsafecommoditieswillbenefitgoldexportersevenifthemetalmakesatinycontributiontotheoverallGDPs;andthesharpdropinoilwillbenefitmostcountriesbuthurtAngola(with92.4%ofexportearningsfromoilin2018andChinabeingAngola'slargestoilimporter).ForSouthAfrica,Chinaisakeymarketforchrome,iron-ore,manganeseandmetallurgicalcoal.Overall,astheglobaldemandforbothmanufacturedgoodsandmineralresourcesdrops,economiesinSouthernAfricawillsuffer,withlessdiverseeconomies(e.g.ZambiaandBotswana)evenmoreso.
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As amajortouristdestination(fornature,sport,recreationandconferencing),SouthernAfricaisalreadyfeelingtheimpact,withSeychelles,Mauritius,SouthAfrica,ZambiaandZimbabwerecordingsharpdropsintouristarrivals.PwCestimatesthat1,000tourism-relatedjobsinSAalonearethreatenedinacountrywithalreadycloseto30%unemploymentrate.InLivingstoneandVictoriaFalls,hoteloccupancyratesareaslow30%astouristshavecancelledbookings,short-term/contractstaffhavebeenlaid-off.
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In recentyearsSouthernAfricahasattractedmostFDIsinthecontinent,butgloballyUNCTADexpectstheseinflowstofallby5-15%.InSouthAfricathebusinessconfidenceinallkeysectors(manufacturers,buildingcontractors,retailers,wholesalersandnewvehicledealers)hasgonebelow50–i.e.negative–indicatingthatbusinessconditionsaredeemedunsatisfactory.
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The Randhasweakenedby11%inthefirst2monthsof2020,draggingdownotherSACUmembers’currencies;andtheratingcreditagencyMoody’sisexpectedtodowngradethecountrytoanon-investmentgradelaterinMarch2020.Thecountryhadalreadyslippedintorecessioninlate2019.
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Countercyclical policiesarehamperedbyoveralllowgrowth(theregionisgrowingtheslowestofallAfricanregions)andhighlevelsofpublicdebt.Whilecentralbanksareexpectedtosoftenthepandemicblow,monetarypolicyalonewillbeineffectiveinencouragingeconomicactivityinthefaceoflimitedfiscalpolicycapacity.Also,countercyclicalpolicieshavelimitedabilitytomitigatesupplysideimpacts;forexampletheycannotmakeupfortheabsentworkersdraggingontheeconomy’sproductivecapacity.

As COVID-19 has now spread throughout the world, South Africa, as Chair of the AU, should lead the continent in encouraging deeper intra-African trade and investment as a bulwark against external shocks to the continental economy and progress towards SDG attainment.

Southern Africa countries most exposed through the three main channels

(commodities, tourism and trade)

COVID-19 outbreak expected impact via commodity demand and prices

COVID-19 outbreak expected impact via travel restrictions and border closures

Serious challenge to SDGs’ achievement as we are entering the decade of action

Policy measures

Member States should use expansionary monetary policies as a short

-term measure to boost their economies given the moderate inflationary environment in most countries;

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Member States should intensify concerted economic diversification efforts (including value addition

and beneficiation), as well as faster rollout of regional industrialization programmes (accelerated domestication and implementation of regional industrialization protocols and strategies) to boost industry and cushion economies against the adverse effects of the decline in global economic growth;

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Member States should invest into the diversification of export destinations, including through

deepening intra-African trade and faster execution of regional and continental trade protocols such as the AfCFTA;

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Member States

should create conducive and consistent economic policies and stable macroeconomic environments with fiscal sustainability to endear good economic governance and boost investor confidence thereby encouraging local and foreign investment in large, medium and small enterprises;

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Member States

should intensify efforts towards addressing poverty and inequalities for long term social and political stability; and

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Member States

should collaborate amongst themselves and with other stakeholders (private sector, CSO’s academia etc.) at the national and regional levels for coordinated responses to the pandemic.

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